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This is an experiment in hypertext polemic -- a bit detailed and unconventional, needing a way to both offer subtleties and get quickly to the point. You can read just the main body for gist, or browse sidebars and links for detail and supporting material.
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home > nonfiction > an opinionated world > war in the 21st century
War in the 21st Century: Maturity vs. Neocon Panic and the true role of Pax Americana an article by David Brin, Ph.D.
Copyright © 2004. All rights reserved. Like most U.S. voters, I have strong opinions about the election of 2004. I'll express a few of those views here. But first a qualifier. While some of these sentiments may strike you as partisan, I also have a longstanding reputation for approaching politics with a degree of balance as an assertive... even militant... moderate. See links explaining what I mean by militant moderation, and why I claim that dogmas of "left" and "right" are archaic, unworthy of 21st Century minds. As for the macro topic of "War in the 21st Century," I won't claim to offer the depth of sober analysis presented in longer works by more qualified hands. Read, for example, The Pentagon's New Map by senior military analyst for the U.S. Naval War College, Tom Barnett, Lifting the Fog of War, by past Vice Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral William Owens, or In Athena's Camp by John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt et.al., which offer nonpartisan (if worried) wisdom about this dangerous future. (See more about these and all cited books at the end of this article.) |
SIDEBARS & FOOTNOTES
TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVES: ----------------------------
TO ENGAGE THESE ISSUES: ----------------------------
This experiment in hypertext polemic would never happen without the skill of Beverly Price, web designer extraordinaire, who manages the infernally complex "David Brin Site" with unflappable patience and ingenuity. ----------------------------
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What I am said to be good at is stepping to one side and proposing unusual perspectives (see sidebar) about the future. Among features below are direct, line-by-line comparisons between our intervention in the Balkans and the invasion of Iraq. Also, discussion of Pax Americana and the subtle ways that power will have to be used during the 21st Century. Neoconservatives veer... Not "right" but weird My kind of passionate centrism is devoutly loyal to the Enlightenment and -- yes -- patriotic toward a version of Pax Americana representing our best and smartest virtues. Passionate centrism can be roused by events to express vigorous partisanship in a particular election. Not because I prefer simpleminded "left" or "right" -handed solutions, but because overwhelming evidence leads me to conclude that civilization is in danger from a particular gang of manipulative rascals. Yes, that puts it strongly! Yet, I cannot overstate the extent to which the present U.S. Administration has discarded reason, abandoning conservative traditions, enlightenment values and the public interest in favor of ideological fanaticism and short term profit for a narrow elite. The evidence is so overwhelming, even dedicated pundits of the "extreme right" have taken note, as in the following: |
UNUSUAL PERSPECTIVES: ----------------------------
THE WEIRD NEW BRAND OF "NEOCONSERVATISM": ----------------------------
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Now, of course, it's ironic for me to feature a quotation from a politician I generally oppose. Just as Richard Nixon sent Abe Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt spinning in their graves... and Gingrich-Buchanan had poor Barry Goldwater whirring in his... the latest band of ideologues has spun-up guys like Buchanan even while alive. Indeed, for all their faults, at least Nixon was a pragmatist (the China Gambit), while Goldwater was smart and honest. Bob Dole was brave and funny. And Ronald Reagan opposed a genuinely evil empire while speaking in clear English sentences. None of these compensating or saving graces can be found in the present administration... although one quality -- unswerving loyalty to the Saudi Royal House -- does resemble a virtue that we find endearing in hounds. The case for a smart, agile and decent Pax Americana Let me make clear that my scorn for this gang is only glancingly related to that expressed by self-described leftists. Indeed, I find myself in the odd position of agreeing with many of the surface rationalizations expressed by administration dogmatist Paul Wolfowitz -- while despising the destructive way they are implemented in real life. For example, I believe: (See the expanded version)
Do these statements make me sound like a neoconservative pal of Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Kenneth Adelman, Richard Pipes, and Paul Nitze? Then also consider this:
Maniacal flag-waving is a well-known symptom of decline in great nations, from Rome in 400 AD to Britain in 1910. Our history shows that best results are achieved by a mixture of idealism, accountability, pragmatism, and adherence to truth telling. Fealty to these deep American (essentially Enlightenment) values will nearly always wind up serving the interests of the country, as well as our honor. |
PANIC VS. MATURITY? |
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Idealism, accountability (see sidebar), pragmatism and credibility. These key elements of both honor and success have been abandoned by the group now controlling all three branches of government in the United States of America. Can I back up that strong statement? In limited space, I must pick and choose from a wealth of evidence, strewn across a dozen years of neocon fanaticism and thievery, especially the last four, in which a tragic flameout-spiral of the conservative movement has hit what we can only hope and pray will be its nadir, before climbing back (see sidebar) someday to the levels of honesty and intellectual integrity shown by Barry Goldwater. The trend back toward a multi-polar world Here and now, I'll focus on really dangerous stuff. Like an almost-Manchurian-Candidate-level demolition of American diplomatic, political and military influence in a dangerous world. Five years ago, the USA was inarguably leader of this planet. And while some foreign politicians grumbled about "unipolarity," nobody was doing much about it. A few hand-wringing articles suggested China might get uppity by the 2020s. Big deal. Like the economy, we never had it so good. Today there are meetings and discussions (sidebar) being held, almost year-round, in Beijing, Moscow, Paris, Berlin, Delhi and a dozen other locales, all with the same over-arching theme: What shall we do about America? And this leaves entirely aside the fever pitch of resentment in the Islamic world, that Pat Buchanan referred to above. The neoconservative movement knows this. What has been their reaction to these meetings and discussions? Essentially it is "Let 'em grumble!" or a triumphalist "We're on top; what can they do about it?" Contempt for the impotence of protesting foreigners may be viscerally satisfying to jingoist fools. But is it practical, at any level, to express contempt as openly as so many right-wingers have? Each time they open their mouths, attendance at those meetings increases. Bright, influential and determined people in many lands have made it their priority to re-establish a multi-polar world, by hook or by crook, as soon as possible. This it was not true during the previous administration. Moreover, it is not in our interest (see sidebar). Even if you generally approve of Pax Americana -- especially if you do -- this kind of behavior (goading foreigners for their impotence) should seem immature at best. At worst positively moronic. War and intervention in the 21st Century I promised that this essay would be interesting not only to liberal detractors of the administration, but also to moderates, conservatives, even those who believe in an activist foreign policy. So let's get specific, focusing on the pragmatic exercise of Pax Americana power, comparing three recent cases of U.S. military intervention. First off, it is simply staggering what challenges we've recently tried to take on. If you had to name three places in the world where any historian would warn a great nation not to intervene, it's Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Balkans. Only America could have even tried. Let's see how we did. Afghanistan: a genuine emergency. In the immediate aftermath of the tragic and dastardly attacks of September 11, 2001, Western Civilization had to respond decisively. While we can fret over the unsatisfying aftermath of warlords, opium and doubts, there can be no question that the initial Afghanistan Campaign was resoundingly successful -- more so than any other foreign involvement there since Alexander the Great. Even foreign powers that opposed the intervention were impressed. Knowing how difficult and obdurate the place can be, even small achievements in nation building are noteworthy, though still tentative. (Those who reflexively oppose "Pax Americana" should ask -- where else might the women of Afghanistan ever have been able to turn?) Credit should be apportioned equally between the President who said "go-get-em-boys" (without meddling) and the previous administration, which did the hard work of preparation. Find that hard to swallow? Click here for an expanded discussion. Afghanistan scores even. The Clinton Administration indisputably made preparations, created the teams, forged alliances, crafted the plan. Bush backers are welcome to crow that their guy said "go-get em", while claiming (without a scintilla of evidence) that Al Gore (who helped with the planning) would not have. What-ifs are a matter of opinion. The Balkans: urgent but elective surgery. One thing the Bush Administration wants to avoid, at all costs, is any comparison between the quagmire in Iraq and the stunningly successful Clinton Administration effort to straighten out the tangled mess of the Balkans. Click here for an expanded discussion of one of the great successes in the history of American foreign policy. An archetype for how mature, patient, forceful, and ultimately successful Pax Americana intervention should be handled during a nervous 21st Century, for both our vital interests and the betterment of all humankind. See below for a point-by-point comparison between the Balkans and the quagmire-catastrophe that our present leadership has sent us charging into, namely.... Iraq. Elective surgery in a messy emergency room. The American people are conflicted. They are right to feel, instinctively, that Pax Americana can be -- as Abraham Lincoln said -- "the last, best hope of humankind." At least until a day comes when force is finally replaced in world affairs by accountability and law. Above all, the American people feel no shame over toppling Saddam Hussein. Nor should they. Indeed, I will surprise some by saying that we do not always need UN approval before acting against monsters. The UN is nothing like a sovereign and responsible Confederation of Earth. No. Until some kind of trustworthy confederated era arrives, there are still worthy jobs for the Last Empire. But those tasks still need ratification. Experience shows that one and only one thing truly ratifies a U.S. intervention: Images of grateful populations welcoming and kissing our troops. It was the ultimate validation when we liberated captive lands in World War II and its absence proved the stupidity of entering Vietnam. That kind of scene authorized -- post facto -- Ronald Reagan's miniputsches in Grenada and Panama and their absence drove Bill Clinton out of Somalia. (I told you, I'm balanced.) During a crucial test of American will and skill, the openly-expressed gratitude of the people of the Balkans -- especially deliriously happy Kosovars and Bosnians, but also many delighted Croats and Serbs palpably proved that we did the right thing there. Not only moral, but pragmatic, as well. (It's amazing how often these are the same.) In 2003, while preparing to invade Iraq on the pretext of imminent, mortal danger to the American people from Weapons of Mass destruction, the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, confidently predicted that our intervention would receive similar ratification in the form of "flowers and kisses in the streets." Had this been true across the length and breadth of Iraq, all critics would be silenced, our moral authority would have risen, more allies would have stepped forward to assume duties, and our key military assets could have quickly returned to their essential task -- upgrading readiness for further challenges. Moreover, rebuilding Iraq would have proceeded at a rapid clip, propelled by good planning, an eager population, re-established infrastructure and revenues from vast reserves of oil. Such scenes would even have pushed aside the concerns of people like me, who saw "elective surgery" blown out of all proportions by a cynically contrived and politically motivated "emergency." |
IDEALISM AND ACCOUNTABILITY: ----------------------------
CLIMBING BACK:
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MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS: ----------------------------
NOT IN OUR INTEREST: ----------------------------
Other Indictments: Other Indictments:
Other Indictments: Other Indictments: ----------------------------
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But such scenes are rare as hen's teeth. Instead, here is a list of outcomes from our adventure in Iraq:
Again, you cannot argue with results. A Line-by-Line Comparison But by any real measure, the Balkans intervention was a near perfect archetype of how 21st Century interventions by Pax Americana should be done. Shall we stack the Balkans beside Iraq, for a point by point contrast?
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MAPS, ANYONE?: ----------------------------
WEB SITES FOR THE UNDECIDED ----------------------------
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The only trait that the current Iraq intervention has in common with the Balkans is a toppled tyrant. At every other level, it could not have been worse had it been (mis)managed by the Three Stooges (see sidebar). Oh, and did I mention no American servicemen or women died from hostile action in the Balkans? Alliances strengthened. Trust in our leadership increased. Until a day comes that we can shrug off our duty as the world's "last empire," we are still needed. And the world will accept our leadership, if we act like grownups. (That includes exercising patient diplomacy and telling the truth.) But the world will only put up with cowboy stuff for so long. Remember Vietnam, when brilliant but testosterone-poisoned JFK went macho on us, plunging America into an ill-conceived land war in Asia? When fabricated pretexts like the Tonkin Gulf Incident combined with "domino theories" to justify carte blanche spending of precious American treasure and lives in a brutal struggle without clear goals, justification or exit strategy, dividing and almost tearing our society apart? When gung-ho elements (the same ones as today) chanted "kill em all!" as an intelligent response to subtle and complex problems? When defeating the enemy called for judo... cautious appraisal, then surgically precise tactics... but instead we charged in like sumo wrestlers? |
MISMANAGEMENT: ----------------------------
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There were dozens of ways we could have eliminated Saddam other than calling an emergency, using-up men, tools and credibility that we may need later, and creating another divisive, lie-soaked quagmire (see sidebar on "Redux"). But emergencies and wars are election-winners. They make a leader look strong, whatever his true character may be. How dare they bring up "character"! Alas, character is where the very worst accusation must be made. For let's remember that we were led into this quagmire by same team, THE VERY SAME LIST OF NAMES, who had Saddam in their hands, in 1991 and let him go. They treat Desert Storm like it's ancient history. Apologists shrug off that egregious blunder. But history is important. (See more about this shame.) It reflects on the judgement of men who are now asking for our trust -- and our sons and daughters -- yet again. No. They had Saddam in their hands, then consigned the people of Iraq to twelve more years of hell. And Rummy had the gall to expect kisses and flowers, this time around? How would you feel, if you were finally rescued by a snobbish clique that betrayed you horribly, a decade earlier? At best you'd say -- "thanks for finally toppling our monster like you promised you'd do when I was young... now get the hell out!" Which is what many people of Iraq are saying to us right now. Oh,there are many issues. Many signs that these insufferably smug neocons are in no position to raise the "character" issue. But this one - the stain on our nation's honor -- is relevant. They did this in the ultimate test of character. They did it and their rationalized excuses only dishonor us more. The exact same list of names. CONCLUSION: |
REDUX ON EMERGENCY VS. ELECTIVE SURGERY: ----------------------------
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Enough. This is but a small fraction of the stuff that never went into Fahrenheit 911 (see sidebar ). Nor should it have. That was a irate polemic of the left. This is an irate polemic of the center. Which is why I am appealing to moderates like me... and even true conservatives from the libertarian and Barry Goldwater traditions. Please, this is too important. Don't leave the vital and patriotic task of opposing these cretins solely to liberals. If the American people do wake up and eject these monstrous shills for a hostile foreign power, should liberals get all the credit? And if the monsters win, continuing down these paths to ruin, do you really want to share the blame? Moderates and true conservatives, remember that every movement has its day in the sun... and every movement spends time hijacked by jerks. Right now, the most patriotic and politically savvy thing that you can do is help clean house on the right. Then nurture and send us honest American conservatives who will talk to their neighbors and treat them as fellow citizens, not enemies in a "cultural war." Decent conservative men and women who prefer "right-handed solutions" but are willing to argue fairly and negotiate openly, helping us all come up with agile ways and means to make a better world. Moderates, conservatives, consider demanding some concessions from the Kerry team, in exchange for your grudging, short-term support. I pose one possible concession in an earlier political essay, "Honoring the Losing Majority" (see "works cited," below)... one that could set a precedent, helping us all turn away from the politics of isolated demagoguery toward an era of listening to each other again. An era of pragmatic consensus in dangerous times. I appeal to you. If Clinton and the DLC could snatch influence away from the super-liberals and fanatics who once hijacked the left, can't you start a revolution to reclaim the soul of conservatism? BOOKS, DVDs AND ARTICLES CITED IN THIS ESSAY
BOOKS: DVDs: ARTICLES: Also worth a look: administration predictions about Iraq vs. real events.
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FAHRENHEIT 911: ----------------------------
Questions: |
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Copyright © 2001-2006 by David Brin. All Rights Reserved. Questions or comments on the web design? Email the web designer or visit The Runaway Serf. |
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